CICC released a research report that based on more prudent assumptions about the growth of student numbers and tuition per student, China Education Holdings ' (00839) fiscal year 2026 revenue by 4% to 7.77 billion yuan, and lowered its adjusted EBITDA forecast by 1% to 4.19 billion yuan., introducing the 2027 fiscal year revenue forecast 81.600 million yuan, adjusted EBITDA forecast is 4.42 billion yuan. Maintain an outperforming industry rating and reduce the target price by 30% to HK$3.5 (corresponding to 3.4 times) considering the downward trend of the valuation center
2026e Adjusted EV/EBITDA). The company is currently trading at 2.8 times 2026e adjusted EV/EBITDA, corresponding to 22% upside.
The company's fiscal year 2025 revenue is basically in line with the bank's expectations, and adjusted EBITDA exceeds the bank's expectations.
China Education Holdings announced its 2025 fiscal year results: revenue increased by 11.9% year-on-year to 7.36 billion yuan, basically in line with the bank's expectations; adjusted EBITDA increased by 10.5% year-on-year to 4.17 billion yuan, exceeding the bank's expectations, mainly due to the fact that expense control was better than the bank's expectations. During the fiscal year, the company did not announce a dividend.
Scale growth remains stable, and student growth in the new academic year slows down
In fiscal year 2025, the company's revenue increased by 11.9% year-on-year. As of August 31, 2025, the number of full-time students in the company has increased by approximately 5% year-on-year to 282,000; as of October 2025, the company's full-time students in the 2025/26 academic year increased by 0.2% year-on-year, of which higher education students increased by 2.8% year-on-year.
The profit level of the main business is basically stable, and the impairment of goodwill drags down the net profit attributable to the parent company.
In fiscal year 2025, the company's gross profit margin was 53.3%, year-on-year-2.1 ppt; the adjusted EBITDA ratio was 56.6%, year-on-year-0.7 ppt. During the period, the company made impairment of goodwill on its three schools, totaling 1.706 billion yuan.
The turning point of capital expenditure has reached, and there is uncertainty about future dividends
During the period, the company's total capital expenditure was-45.2% year-on-year to 2.66 billion yuan.As of August 31, 2025, the company's interest-bearing asset-liability ratio was approximately 26.0%(26.4% in the same period last year), which was at a healthy level. The company's management will indicate in the public results that there is uncertainty in the future dividend policy.
Risk warning: policy changes in the higher education industry; enrollment and tuition fall short of expectations; goodwill impairment risk.
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